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Gear, Tony and Endress, Tobias (2013) e-Delphi Pilot Experiment of Quality of Equity Predictions in Online Groups. International Journal of Management Cases, 15 (4). pp. 74-89.
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Abstract
This paper presents the results of a pilot experiment of stock price predictions by online groups, including the research process and a summary of the results. The overall objectives of the planned research study are three-fold: to assess the effect of individual and remote group decision-making approaches to stock price predictions; to assess whether a learning effect exists through the feedback loop of an e-Delphi process; and to identify the underlying key mechanisms of the individual and of the group that influence the decision-making process. The pilot run was performed with a small group (11 participants) and three financial analysts to benchmark the group over five e-Delphi cycles (five weeks). Each participant in the pilot was asked to provide an estimation of the movement (up or down) over a one-week and three-month period of four shares as well as enter a stock price prediction for a three-month period. The pilot run has provided some indications that, in certain situations and with careful group design, stock price predictions can be superior to the predictions of experts.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Article Type: | Article |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | e-Delphi, Online community, group decision-making processes, collective intelligence, equity predictions, stock-trading |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Schools and Research Institutes > School of Business, Computing and Social Sciences |
| Research Priority Areas: | Applied Business & Technology |
| Depositing User: | Susan Turner |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Feb 2015 17:00 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Aug 2023 11:49 |
| URI: | https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/id/eprint/1321 |
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