Is there any ‶Dutch Disease″ in Libya's economy?

Nasef, Ali Elmahdi (2010) Is there any ‶Dutch Disease″ in Libya's economy? PhD thesis, University of Gloucestershire.

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Purpose: The massive wealth coming from an increase in national resource exports would be normally considered as a blessing. Nevertheless, it has brought about some adverse effects to the country's economy known in the literature as the "Dutch Disease" phenomenon or "deindustrialisation". The main purpose of this study is to explore whether Libya experienced the Dutch Disease following to the oil booms of 1973-1974 and 1978 and also to make policy suggestions to prevent or moderate the Dutch Disease. This study may be the first of its kind to apply the estimation technique to examine whether there is a Dutch Disease in Libyan economy. Methodology: A model was built especially to deal characteristics of Libyan economy. It is noteworthy that a dummy variable was developed to capture the impact of UN sanctions on the Libyan economy. This model is then estimated by using the annual data' over the period from 1970 to 2004 and using co-intergration model. Findings: This thesis has shown that Libya suffered from negative effects of the oil boom in such as the deterioration in manufacturing and agricultural sectors because of an appreciation of the real exchange rate and an expansion of the non-traded goods sector. The booming demand for oil led to shifts in productive resources of economy from the tradable-goods sectors to the non-tradable goods sectors. The results are consistent with the literature prediction that in a boom period the tradable goods sector is squeezed and the non-tradable goods sector expanded. However, the result also shoes that UN sanction affected the tradable goods sector positively and non tradable sector negatively.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
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Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5001 Business
Divisions: Schools and Research Institutes > Gloucestershire Business School
Depositing User: Anne Pengelly
Date Deposited: 13 Jun 2022 11:16
Last Modified: 04 Jul 2022 12:31

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