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Jensen, RA, Madsen, J, O'Connell, Mark 
ORCID: 0000-0003-3402-8880, Wisz, M, Tommervik, H and Mehlums, F
(2008)
Prediction of the distribution of Arctic‐nesting
pink‐footed geese under a warmer climate
scenario.
Global Change Biology, 14 (1).
pp. 1-10.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01461.x
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Text (Peer-reviewed version)
Prediction of the distribution of Arctic.pdf - Accepted Version Available under License All Rights Reserved. Download (546kB) | Preview |
Abstract
Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 21C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Article Type: | Article |
| Additional Information: | This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: JENSEN, R. A., MADSEN, J., O'CONNELL, M., WISZ, M. S., TØMMERVIK, H. and MEHLUM, F. (2008), Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario. Global Change Biology, 14: 1–10., which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01461.x/abstract. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Anser brachyrhynchus; Arctic; Biodiversity; Climate change; Climate envelope; Species distributio models; Svalbard |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QL Zoology Q Science > QL Zoology > QL605 Chordates. Vertebrates > QL671-699 Birds |
| Divisions: | Schools and Research Institutes > School of Education and Science |
| Research Priority Areas: | Place, Environment and Community |
| Depositing User: | Mark O'Connell |
| Date Deposited: | 03 Oct 2017 15:11 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Aug 2023 08:59 |
| URI: | https://eprints.glos.ac.uk/id/eprint/4918 |
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