Stock Prices: Are Intuitive or Deliberate Persons Better Forecasters?

Endress, Tobias and Gear, Tony (2015) Stock Prices: Are Intuitive or Deliberate Persons Better Forecasters? Economics and Sociology, 8 (4). pp. 43-50. ISSN 2071-789X

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Abstract

When it comes to financial decision-making like predicting stock price movements, it would be conceivable that rational people had an advantage over intuitive people. An experiment was conducted to test this hypothesis. Participants of the experiment provided repeated estimates for different shares and it was expected that rational people would end up with more ‘correct’ answers than intuitive people. Additionally, all participants of the experiment (N=59) completed a PID scale questionnaire (Betsch, 2004; Schunk & Betsch, 2006) to evaluate their preferences for deliberate or intuitive decision-making. The PID scale provided four categories to group people according to their preferences. In summary, it was concluded that intuitive people were slightly, but not significantly, better with financial decisionmaking than were rational people. A higher significance was observed from a direct comparison of the four PID categories. Predictions of PID-S-plus participants were significantly more accurate.

Item Type: Article
Article Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecasting, decision-making, financial economics, equity predictions, stock trading
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4501 Investment, capital formation, speculation
Divisions: Schools and Research Institutes > Business School > Marketing and Retail
Research Priority Areas: Applied Business Research
Depositing User: Susan Turner
Date Deposited: 08 Jan 2016 13:57
Last Modified: 24 Mar 2017 05:15
URI: http://eprints.glos.ac.uk/id/eprint/2975

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