e-Delphi Pilot Experiment of Quality of Equity Predictions in Online Groups

Gear, Tony and Endress, Tobias (2013) e-Delphi Pilot Experiment of Quality of Equity Predictions in Online Groups. International Journal of Management Cases, 15 (4). pp. 74-89. ISSN 1741-6264

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Abstract

This paper presents the results of a pilot experiment of stock price predictions by online groups, including the research process and a summary of the results. The overall objectives of the planned research study are three-fold: to assess the effect of individual and remote group decision-making approaches to stock price predictions; to assess whether a learning effect exists through the feedback loop of an e-Delphi process; and to identify the underlying key mechanisms of the individual and of the group that influence the decision-making process. The pilot run was performed with a small group (11 participants) and three financial analysts to benchmark the group over five e-Delphi cycles (five weeks). Each participant in the pilot was asked to provide an estimation of the movement (up or down) over a one-week and three-month period of four shares as well as enter a stock price prediction for a three-month period. The pilot run has provided some indications that, in certain situations and with careful group design, stock price predictions can be superior to the predictions of experts.

Item Type: Article
Article Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: e-Delphi, Online community, group decision-making processes, collective intelligence, equity predictions, stock-trading
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Business, Computing and Applied Sciences > Business School > Marketing and Retail
Research Priority Areas: Applied Business Research
Depositing User: Susan Turner
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2015 17:00
Last Modified: 18 Feb 2016 14:56
URI: http://eprints.glos.ac.uk/id/eprint/1321

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