Prediction of the distribution of Arctic‐nesting pink‐footed geese under a warmer climate scenario

Jensen, RA and Madsen, J and O'Connell, Mark and Wisz, M and Tommervik, H and Mehlums, F (2008) Prediction of the distribution of Arctic‐nesting pink‐footed geese under a warmer climate scenario. Global Change Biology, 14 (1). pp. 1-10. ISSN 1365-2486

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Abstract

Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 21C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.

Item Type: Article
Article Type: Article
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: JENSEN, R. A., MADSEN, J., O'CONNELL, M., WISZ, M. S., TØMMERVIK, H. and MEHLUM, F. (2008), Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario. Global Change Biology, 14: 1–10., which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01461.x/abstract. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Anser brachyrhynchus; Arctic; Biodiversity; Climate change; Climate envelope; Species distributio models; Svalbard
Subjects: Q Science > QL Zoology
Q Science > QL Zoology > QL605 Chordates. Vertebrates > QL671-699 Birds
Divisions: Schools and Research Institutes > School of Natural & Social Sciences > Environmental Sciences
Research Priority Areas: Environmental Dynamics & Governance
Depositing User: Mark O'Connell
Date Deposited: 03 Oct 2017 15:11
Last Modified: 03 Oct 2017 15:21
URI: http://eprints.glos.ac.uk/id/eprint/4918

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